06 May 2010

A Hung Parliament Will Stick Two Fingers Up To Rupert Murdoch

That in essence is the choice, between re-electing Rupert Murdoch who has placed his chips on the Tories or a hung parliament. One thing is sure, Gordon Brown will be gone in the next week.

I think the softness of the Tory vote and the rise in the Lib Dems show that this election was eminently winnable for Labour, if only they had got rid of Gordon Brown.

My prediction is for the Tories to get over 110 gains to reach 315 MPs - just short of a majority but maybe enough to govern alone with the NI unionists. I think Labour will lose 140 seats to end on 205 seats - this is a massacre. The worst result for Labour since 1983.

The Lib Dems will gain the other 30 seats and end on around 90 seats. This will be their best result since they were last in power. In terms of votes the Tories are around 35%, Labour 28% and Lib Dem 28%.

Who comes second will be very close. It is a real shame the Lib Dems surge has stalled. I would love for the polls to be wrong and the Lib Dems to win the popular vote.

Only a result where the Lib Dems top the vote but end up with 100 seats to Labour's 200 and the Tories 300 would demonstrate to people the utter absurdity of our voting system and force the politicians (even the Tories) to offer change.

The pollsters are all calling it 35%-37% for the Tories with them getting between 290 and 340 seats. Over 320 and the Tories have a majority. I think (and hope) they fall well short of 320, below 300 would be even better because it will allow a Lib-Lab coalition. If the Tories get over 300 seats the chance of electoral reform will be scuppered.

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