21 August 2009

Corrected Swing For Greens Across B&H

It was kindly pointed out by Tom M in the comments of this post, that my maths was a bit astray in my previous predictions. I underestimated the Green swing massively, so here is what the results would actually be according to Tom's more accurate formula.
…So, here’s how the vote for each party actually changed in Goldsmid:

The Con vote in 2009 was down 17% on 2007 (from 1330 to 1104)
The Lab vote was down 34% (from 1231 to 816)
The Lib Dem vote was down 54% (from 609 to 280)
The Green vote was up 44% (from 1010 to 1456)

So here’s what things would look like if applied to Brunswick and Adelaide:

Brunswick & Adelaide: GRN GAIN 2 seats
Grn: 694 (144% of 482)
Grn: 621 (144% of 431)
LD: 443 (46% of 942)
LD: 335 (46% of 729)
Carrying this formula on to other marginal wards gives the following results:-

Central Hove: CON HOLD 2 seats
Con: 800
Con: 747
Grn: 605
Grn: 480

East Brighton: GRN GAIN 1 seat, LAB HOLD 2 seats
Lab: 1016
Lab: 925
Grn: 894
Lab: 833
Con: 830
Grn: 673

Goldsmid: GRN GAIN 1 seat and HOLD 1 seat, CON HOLD 1 seat
Grn: 1456
Grn: 1200
Con: 1104
Grn: 1095

Hollingbury & Stanmer: GRN GAIN 2 seats, LAB HOLD 1 seat
Grn: 987
Lab: 875
Grn: 808
Lab: 697
Con: 695

Moulsecoomb & Bevendean: CON GAIN 2 seats and HOLD 1 seat
Con: 816
Con: 814
Con: 800
Grn: 674
Lab: 672

North Portslade: CON GAIN 1 seat and HOLD 1 seat
Con: 898
Con: 862
Lab: 753

Preston Park: GRN GAIN 2 seats and HOLD 1 seat
Grn: 2352
Grn: 1707
Grn: 1479
Lab: 1075

South Portslade: CON GAIN 1 seat and HOLD 1 seat
Con: 880
Con: 864
Lab: 738
Grn: 454

Withdean: CON HOLD 3 seats
Con: 1738
Con: 1714
Con: 1663
Grn: 1036
Lab: 495

All the other wards are too safe to see any changes. Obviously applying this swing is a rough guide as some personal votes of councillors might make a difference in some wards. The Greens will do better in some places - e.g. Goldsmid and Central Hove and worse in others and by 2011 might do better than the Goldsmid swing on the back of Caroline Lucas's election as MP. The upshot though is that the council will look like the following in 2011 using the Goldsmid result as a guide:-

CON: 29 seats
GRN: 21
LAB: 3
IND: 1

So the Lib Dems are wiped out and Labour are nearly wiped out as well, just left with a couple of seats in East Brighton and 1 seat in Hollingbury and Stanmer.

The sad thing is the split vote and our electoral system sees the Tories grab 4 extra seats despite seeing a 17% FALL in their vote. This will comfortably give them total control of the council especially as the Independent is an ex-Tory who always votes with them.

The Greens took all their seats off Labour, I think the exception to this will be that the Tories will lose their Goldsmid seat to the Greens - so that would put the Greens on 22 and the Tories on 28 - which still means a Tory council as 27 is the magic number needed.

The Greens are close to the Tories in Moulsecoomb and Bevendean but outside of this their only hope of taking more seats off the Tories in surburban areas is in Withdean - most other surburban seats are far too safe for the Tories.

If the Greens could take Moulsecomb and Bevendean and the extra seat in Goldsmid then they would have 25 seats and with the support of the Labour 3 seats could take control of the council.

Long term the Greens could win in Withdean which would give them 28 seats and sole control. This is thinking well ahead and probably wishful thinking, but you never know.

However it does look like a Labour collapse in Brighton and Hove will saddle us with a Tory council for at least 4 years before the Greens could challenge them. Very sad when 2/3 of people would have voted against the Tories.

My advice to the Greens would be concentrate your efforts in East Brighton, Goldsmid, Hollingbury & Stanmer, Preston Park, Brunswick & Adelaide, Moulsecoomb & Bevendean and Central Hove and you could gain up to 17 seats! I expect them to gain at least 6 seats in these wards at a minimum.

5 comments:

  1. I find myself becoming more and more of a fan of yours, Neil. Still too early to say anything at this point though. Let's hope one year of Tory government is enough to damage them enough to see credibility lost at the local level.


    Luke

    ReplyDelete
  2. Luke, Jim, I am resigned to a Tory government in 2010.

    I hope you are right about 1 year denting their popularity - they are obviously preparing people for cutbacks AND tax rises.

    But unlike Labour taxes on middle and high earners, we all know where the Tory taxes are going to hit - the lowest paid.

    In London Boris has maintained his popularity by largely continuing Ken policies, but I imagine this is only so as not to spoil the Tories chances in 2010.

    I reckon in 2010 all hell will let loose as 200 Tory backbenchers with views just as alien to public opinion as Dan Hannan put pressure on Cameron to please their backers.

    People always give new governments a certain grace period and blame the previous government. This is what Cameron and co are banking on. But hopefully they won't get away with it and people will blame the Tories for Tory cutbacks and taxes and the Greens here will benefit from that.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Good work Neil - thanks for this!

    It's interesting, although unfortunate, that even with the much more dramatic shift in votes the Tories still win.. Bum..

    Tom M

    ReplyDelete
  4. And what happens if the Tories do not do this and actually help the unemployed the sick the disabled because the market picks up, and the financial sector improves which might well happen.

    what happens to labour then we look for a Thatcher.

    ReplyDelete