…So, here’s how the vote for each party actually changed in Goldsmid:Carrying this formula on to other marginal wards gives the following results:-
The Con vote in 2009 was down 17% on 2007 (from 1330 to 1104)
The Lab vote was down 34% (from 1231 to 816)
The Lib Dem vote was down 54% (from 609 to 280)
The Green vote was up 44% (from 1010 to 1456)
So here’s what things would look like if applied to Brunswick and Adelaide:
Brunswick & Adelaide: GRN GAIN 2 seats
Grn: 694 (144% of 482)
Grn: 621 (144% of 431)
LD: 443 (46% of 942)
LD: 335 (46% of 729)
Central Hove: CON HOLD 2 seats
East Brighton: GRN GAIN 1 seat, LAB HOLD 2 seats
Goldsmid: GRN GAIN 1 seat and HOLD 1 seat, CON HOLD 1 seat
Hollingbury & Stanmer: GRN GAIN 2 seats, LAB HOLD 1 seat
Moulsecoomb & Bevendean: CON GAIN 2 seats and HOLD 1 seat
North Portslade: CON GAIN 1 seat and HOLD 1 seat
Preston Park: GRN GAIN 2 seats and HOLD 1 seat
South Portslade: CON GAIN 1 seat and HOLD 1 seat
Withdean: CON HOLD 3 seats
All the other wards are too safe to see any changes. Obviously applying this swing is a rough guide as some personal votes of councillors might make a difference in some wards. The Greens will do better in some places - e.g. Goldsmid and Central Hove and worse in others and by 2011 might do better than the Goldsmid swing on the back of Caroline Lucas's election as MP. The upshot though is that the council will look like the following in 2011 using the Goldsmid result as a guide:-
CON: 29 seats
So the Lib Dems are wiped out and Labour are nearly wiped out as well, just left with a couple of seats in East Brighton and 1 seat in Hollingbury and Stanmer.
The sad thing is the split vote and our electoral system sees the Tories grab 4 extra seats despite seeing a 17% FALL in their vote. This will comfortably give them total control of the council especially as the Independent is an ex-Tory who always votes with them.
The Greens took all their seats off Labour, I think the exception to this will be that the Tories will lose their Goldsmid seat to the Greens - so that would put the Greens on 22 and the Tories on 28 - which still means a Tory council as 27 is the magic number needed.
The Greens are close to the Tories in Moulsecoomb and Bevendean but outside of this their only hope of taking more seats off the Tories in surburban areas is in Withdean - most other surburban seats are far too safe for the Tories.
If the Greens could take Moulsecomb and Bevendean and the extra seat in Goldsmid then they would have 25 seats and with the support of the Labour 3 seats could take control of the council.
Long term the Greens could win in Withdean which would give them 28 seats and sole control. This is thinking well ahead and probably wishful thinking, but you never know.
However it does look like a Labour collapse in Brighton and Hove will saddle us with a Tory council for at least 4 years before the Greens could challenge them. Very sad when 2/3 of people would have voted against the Tories.
My advice to the Greens would be concentrate your efforts in East Brighton, Goldsmid, Hollingbury & Stanmer, Preston Park, Brunswick & Adelaide, Moulsecoomb & Bevendean and Central Hove and you could gain up to 17 seats! I expect them to gain at least 6 seats in these wards at a minimum.