Fair Votes, Fair Media and Fair Income
However, according to this month's Scientific American, political betting futures are more accurate than opinion polls.
Three weeks ago, political betting was showing Ken 2/1 on and Boris 2/1 against. They tend to exagerate and wildly fluctuate and anyhow follow polls but with a time lag. If we have another poll showing Livingstone moving further ahead - see where the betting moves then.The trouble overall with political betting sites is that they entrench positions and trivialise elections.
I think arguments of this sort were made against the people who did the original study, as reported in the magazine. To some extent they do address them. It's an interesting article.