Just analysed local ward that has just elected 2 UKIP councillors. A pretty identical turnout this time as in 2009, no Lib Dem standing this time but no Ukip last time, from this we can show how votes have moved.
It seems around a third of Tory voters last time went UKIP this time. But that still made up less than half the UKIP vote.
The rest was made up quite surprisingly of ex Lib Dem & Green voters & maybe some Labour. Although Labour did increase it's vote by picking up some of these spare Lib Dems (about 10%) & disenchanted Greens (most).
I imagine a lot of these new UKIP voters have quite fuzzy ideas of what UKIP (or maybe all parties) policies are. Unless switching from pro EU, PC, socially liberal parties, one of which is also vocally anti-austerity, to a party with policies basically the opposite is not a consideration.
That is not to say that surburban areas like this with large numbers of current & retired skilled working class has not developed an appetite for right wing policies, it has.
The press & broadcast media largely bow to their corporate & oligarch masters views that the private sector is king, we shouldn't be rude about Thatcher, and austerity is unchallengeable because Labour overspent on benefits & public services for people who don't deserve it.
Of course, people never cotton on that the media think 99% of the public are the undeserving. It is always the other person we look down on.
So they feed the right wing pig that the masses gorge on. But they have a problem - people know that their living standards are falling and they know deep down that the Tory brand is posh boys tarnished by their record in office. So they have to deflect and all parties subsumed in the establishment are took down with them.
But for now UKIP's brand is fresh & new & led by a charismatic & likeable character with a shrewd autocratic political control of his party. It is paying dividends. The people are fed up and crying out for change, but must at all costs be kept from socialist views. So UKIP is the diversion.
Will this benefit Labour? It depends. If the whole political debate is moved rightwards and Labour too, it could help shore up the Tory vote and remove weak protest voters from Labour. But if ex Tories remain so pissed off they stay with UKIP, our 2 party voting system with a new large centre right split & less so split on left could punish Tories more than Labour.
We could get even more bizarre results than usual. The European elections in 2014 under a form of proportional representation could be very interesting indeed.
Can the Tories really put the genie back in the bottle in time for the general election if UKIP top the poll & Tories fall to third place with less than 25% in 2014? Desperate times for Tories & their press, it has led them to dangerous tactics.