08 January 2011

Labour Will Win The Oldham East & Saddleworth By-Election...Just

I confidently predict that Labour will win and win with an increased majority, but it won't provide the comprehensive victory that Ed Miliband craves, for the following reasons;

1. Both the national press, leading Tory figures and even David Cameron himself have hinted that Tories should 'lend' their vote to their coalition Lib Dem friends. Tory voters are grateful to the Lib Dems for taking all the flak for their crap policies, so might just do that in significant numbers.

2. The Lib Dems are good at by-elections, have a credible, likeable candidate who is now well known because of his mention in the Phil Woolas case. The Lib Dems also have a 'hook' - they will campaign hard on Elwyn Watkins 'decency' and how the nasty Labour party campaigned last time. Will win some sympathy votes especially as this line will be pushed by the right wing press.

3. Debbie Abrahams, the Labour candidate has been labeled as 'brought in from outside' and 'installed by the Labour hierachy'. Quite what this means I do not know since virtually every MP in the country for whatever party had never set foot in their constituency before being selected as a candidate. There are no local candidates which is why our 'constituency link' is such a running joke. I can only assume the right wing press are picking on Debbie because she is Jewish and hope this will play badly with the large muslim vote in the area.

4. Ed Miliband has dented his leftie credibility - he should never have backed the tabloids in attacking Ken Clarke's 'prison doesn't work'. He should have backed him because this is what the left should be about. Instead he lost my vote and probably many others by kowtowing to the right wing press.

Despite all this the sheer lead in the national polls of Labour and the collapse of the Lib Dems means this has to be a Labour win, just not in the several thousands that Ed Miliband needs to silence the Tory press.


  1. 4500 majority not enough?

  2. Nick, I think the majority was 3500ish but I take your point. It was a bit more than I thought but most of my points about Tories lending votes to the Libs etc were bang on.