Ladbrokes have closed odds on for Lucas win from 8/13 to 5/6. In Brighton Pavilion what happens to 4th place Lib Dems vote is crucial. The Lib Dems would have to be polling 45% nationally to win the seat but at their present 30%+ it poses real problems for the Greens. A two way centre-left split with the Lib Dems a poor fourth is likely to still be too much for the Tories, but a three way split could let the Tories win the seat with 27%.
We are resigned to the loss of Hove and Kemptown to the Tories, but Pavilion as well would be disastrous. Nor am I as confident as the Labour leadership that the rise of the Lib Dems will stop the Tories.
Cameron is now as unpopular as William Hague was in 2001 and the Tories have lost 8 points since 'the debate', down now on 33% - around the level Michael Howard got in 2005.
The Lib Dems need two things - a lot of young voters to register and another good performance from Clegg. It is a shame the BBC is doing the Tories dirty work by putting out immigration propaganda. Because Cameron doesn't want to do it himself and show the nasty party has not changed.
Another good debate and if the Lib Dems can get past 35% and take a significant lead and there is no way it can be ignored. Of course the Tory papers (sadly followed by the BBC desperate to please the Tories) have gone full scale to attack the Lib Dems.
Caroline Lucas also needs two things - her name recognition to prevent people voting Lib Dem in Pavilion and people to realise the situation here. Once again our ridiculous electoral system could land us with a Tory government the vast majority do not want.
It is clear people do want change - but Tory change? - these guys are having a laugh. The Tories are THE establishment party - whether it is their policy to keep heriditary peers (cos they all Tory), create hundreds of life peers for their business backers, their defence of an electoral system that gives the most seats to a party coming third and gives the lowest number of seats to the winners of the popular vote (if that is the LIb Dems). The Tories policies on tax are obviously regressive - tax breaks for wealthy married couples and inheritance tax cuts for millionaires. People can see the debates with their own eyes and the Tory policies and Cameron are a posh mess - an Eton mess!
Lucas for Pavilion, Labour in the 100 Tory/Labour marginals and Lib Dem elsewhere. That is the ideal, but people do not have the information to make this choice. The electoral system turns it all into a lottery, electoral roulette. Getting rid of this voting system would make a difference.