07 October 2008

My Prediction: McCain Will Win.

For the following reasons:-....


1. Don't trust the polls - low turnout elections (around 50% or less) with large disparate electorates are notoriously hard for pollsters to predict accurately and US pollsters have consistently had a bad time. Leads of 3%-7% for the Democrats are too small to be clearly outside of the margin of error, the polls always miss 'shy' Republicans and then there is 'the Bradley effect' also in the Republicans favour.

2. Don't trust the media - consistently the Democrats get a rough ride and this becomes more important nearer the poll date. Some studies have found bias of 10 to 1 in the Republicans favour - Kerry had 10 times more negative stories and Bush 10 times more positive ones - this is no accident - the corporate media like to see the Republicans in power. As the election approaches expect all sorts of weird sideline narratives to dominate - focussing on the trivial 'scandals' over real issues is how the media will win it for McCain (even in these desperate economic times I think they will have people voting for Palin's wink rather than Obama's tax and healthcare plans).

3. Don't trust the count - Diebold promised to 'win it for Bush' and electronic counting of votes with no paper trail is a scary thought. Expect more imaginative ballot papers to confuse people into voting Republican and expect more dodgy counts - as in 2000 and 2004.

4. Don't trust the voter registration - expect hundreds of thousands of voters to be disenfranchised in Democratic wards in close states - one way or another they will be put off or prevented from voting whether it be 5 hour queues in poor wards in Ohio, intimidation, 'push polling' or being removed from voter rolls for having a 'similar name' to a felon. The winner decides these things and the Republicans keep winning because they decide these things.

Finally I hope for goodness sake that I am proved wrong and Obama makes history - even then, I'm not hopeful he would be any good - but surely better than McCain/Palin and their religious crowd pleasing rhetoric.

3 comments:

  1. "consistently the Democrats get a rough ride"

    Although I would agree with you regarding previous US elections, I think you are rather wide of the mark this time. The Repubs could barely have had a rougher ride this time and the media, (with the obvious exception of FOX), has been bending over one way or another for Obama.

    That said, as a non US citizen I hope like hell that McCain wins. Obama's protectionist methods will make the worlds poorest very much poorer, (and that's despite thinking that McCain is a bit of a nutter).

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  2. Accusing the media of being pro-republican is probably the most absurd comment I have seen this election.

    Unless you are talking specifically FOX news, I would urge you to reconsider. CNN, NBC, MSNBC, PBS, CBS, NPR and others are very pro-democrat, run pro-democrat stories, run anti-republican stories and frankly crapped all over the idea of journalism.

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  3. Arkady: "very pro-democrat..frankly crapped all over the idea of journalism".

    Some people in the UK think the Daily Mail is too left wing - at the end of the day it depends what angle you desire. All US media is immensely corporate (if not overtly republican it subtly leans that way). Obviously FOX is in a league of its own for right wing bias - but that does not mean the rest are democrat.

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