04 October 2007

The Cameron bounce will not last.

It has been an unusual week with unprecedented coverage for the Tories, heightened by the election speculation, yet they have still ended up behind Labour in the polls who are still around the magic figure of 40%.

I feel that if the election is called and Brown once again starts to dominate the agenda with a Labour fightback and outlines his vision for the NHS, emphasises his cross party appeal and puts constitutional and dare I say it, electoral reform at the heart of his manifesto policies, then Labour's lead will rise again. Labour's support has held solid, I would suggest Cameron has temporarily picked up a few Lib Dems who will return to the fold in an election as they are reminded the Lib Dems still exist.

Ian Dale is trying his best with his usual...
exageration and lies (suggesting the Tories have a lead in the polls - bullshit!), but the Tories are going to lose if the election is called and he knows it.

The decision to call an early election is always going to be a tough one for Brown but not to call one now could be dangerous. Maybe I am wrong on that and I understand Ken Livingstone and others concerns about the weather, but I would definitely call it (if only to wipe the smile off smug Dale's face). Brown will look decisive if he calls Cameron's bluff, and we will soon see the Tory heads drop when they realise they face another 4 years in opposition.

I do not see the weather playing a big role in the election and other problems like registration can be overcome with a little extra resources. I have not even put my heating on in my house yet and November is only 4 weeks away - so it won't be that cold. As for the dark nights - here Brown could play a 'modern' card and have the election over a weekend. A Saturday/Sunday election in October (27th/28th) might get better turnout than a Thursday in June. Go, Gordon, Go!

1 comment:

  1. Neil, thank you for your comment in the face of abuse. I look forward to your counter to my response.

    ReplyDelete