16 May 2007

Brighton & Hove Election Results - The Post Mortem.

Council: Tories 26 (20), Labour 13 (23), Greens 12 (6), Lib Dems 2 (3), Ind 1 (2).

The one independent is an ex-Tory, so if the Tories can get the Mayor and hence get the casting vote (this is decided next week and we will find out the Lib Dems true colours) then the Tories will be able to outvote all other parties combined (27 Tories including mayor against 27 Lab/Grn/LDs).

The turnout for the elections overall was 38%. The total number of votes fell 13% from 221,733 in 2003 to 193,250 in 2007 (2003 was an all postal ballot).

The turnout in Regency ward was 34%. The total number of votes fell 5% from 5111 votes in 2003 to 4851 in 2007 so maybe the intense campaign in this ultra marginal did have some effect in stemming the drop in turnout here.

The average percentage of the vote in Regency was as follows (with 2003 figures in brackets);

REGENCY: Greens 34% (22%), Tories 21% (18%), Labour 21% (28%), Lib Dems 18% (29%)

The top candidate percentages (as percentage of all top party candidates) were;

REGENCY: Green 33% (25%), Labour 22% (26%), Tories 20% (17%), Lib Dems 17% (27%)

Only in Preston Park and East Brighton wards did Labour increase its share of the vote.

The average percentage of the vote in the constituencies was as follows (with 2003 figures in brackets);

PAVILION: Greens 31% (25%), Tories 28% (27%), Labour 25% (30%), Lib Dems 10% (16%).

KEMPTOWN: Tories 42% (39%), Labour 28% (33%), Greens 19% (13%), Lib Dems 10% (14%).

HOVE: Tories 42% (36%), Labour 25% (33%), Lib Dems 15% (19%), Greens 13% (9%).

Even taking into account that Tory voters and Green voters are more likely to turn out in local elections than Labour voters (another 20% of voters will turn-out in a GE), the prognosis has got to be that if Labour are to hold Hove and Kemptown they will need Green or Lib Dem voters to switch to them to beat the Tories.

In Pavilion the Greens have 9 councillors to the Tories 6 and Labour's 5 (the Lib Dems were wiped out). There is clearly no appetite for the Tories as their vote share has moved less than a percent (despite David Cameron campaigning hard here). This means that perhaps both Labour and the Greens can beat them (the Greens were only 500 votes short in 2005 with 9,600 votes)- however on an even three way split it could give the Tories a chance here as well. Labour won with 15,000 votes in 2005. 11,000 votes will probably beat the Tories in Pavilion next time, the Greens have picked up votes from nearly 10,000 people in these local elections in this constituency. The problem for the Greens is they have very little support outside of the city centre in Tory wards like Patcham, Withdean etc.

2007 Election results here
2003 Election results here.

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