18 October 2005

Tory first round result in.

Davis 62
Cameron 56
Fox 42
Clarke 38

Which signals what I predicted last week. Fox has been a beneficiary of tactical votes from Davis which has eliminated Clarke. I now expect Clarke's vote to mostly go to Fox. I may be wrong about this though, I thought Cameron would do worse than this and be eliminated in the next round on Thursday, we shall see. Cameron only needs another 10 votes to make it, has he peaked?


  1. The media are expecting Clarke's votes to move en masse to Cameron. Plus, Fox will lose those tactical voters back to Davis now. It might depend on who Clarke endorses, but I think the result of the next round will be:

    Cameron - 76
    Davis - 72
    Fox - 38

    I've no idea what Tory activists will do - I'm sure, given the choice between Davis and Fox, they'd pick Davis, but Cameron has everything going for him at the moment.

  2. By everything, I mean both the buzz about him being a potential winner (there's no such buzz about Davis, and I don't really see how there could be), and also the trivial things that seem to characerise previous leadership election winners (younger, taller, newer to Parliament, etc.). More than that - if Cameron has sailed through the drugs things (as he appears to have), I can't think of anything else the Davis camp could throw at him.

  3. The media were predicting Fox being eliminated at the start of last week, so I wouldn't assume they know everything. I notice the Times had a very flattering article about Fox in its pages yesterday, that could be an omen.

    The drugs thing might still have damaged Cameron amongst party members if he makes the last two.

    Tory MPs are devious at the best of times, I still think Fox will make it. Cameron needs 10 Clarke supporters which seems easy enough, but I think it will be very close. I predicted this last week;

    Davis 67
    Fox 66
    Cameron 64
    Abstentions 1

    I'm going to stick to it. Cameron has surprised me by getting 56 votes, I thought it would be in the forties, so maybe he will make it BUT I'm convinced the momentum is with Fox.